Another Rate Rise on the Cards: Why Your First Home Buyer Clients Need to Talk to Us Now
Three of the four major banks have changed their tune.
CBA, NAB and ANZ have all revised their forecasts, moving from “no more hikes” to expecting a further 25-basis-point increase before the end of the year, which would take the cash rate to 4.60 per cent. The shift follows a hotter-than-expected 3.5 per cent CPI result, and while the RBA held at its last meeting, that fourth hike is now firmly back on the table. NAB is calling for it as early as September, while ANZ and CBA expect it at the November meeting. Westpac remains the outlier, still holding to no further rises in 2026.
Whichever bank turns out to be right, the direction of travel is the same. And brokers we’ve spoken to are unanimous on who feels it most: first home buyers.
Why FHBs are the most exposed?
It’s not just about the size of the repayment. Every rate rise tightens what the banks’ servicing calculators say a buyer can borrow, often by more than the actual repayment increase would suggest. For clients already stretched to their limit, that’s the difference between staying in the market and being pushed to the sidelines.
Government support like the 5 per cent Deposit Scheme has helped more buyers get started, but a lower deposit doesn’t change whether a bank believes someone can service the loan. That’s the part a scheme can’t solve, and it’s exactly where the gap is starting to show. FHB activity has already pulled back over the past few months, with recent figures from Aussie Home Loans and Loan Market Group both pointing to double-digit declines in the segment.
The bigger risk is confidence, not just capacity
Even buyers who could still comfortably afford the numbers are hesitating. Uncertainty about whether one rise becomes two, or three, is enough to make people wait rather than act, and every month spent waiting is a month of missed pre-approval strategy, missed price negotiation, and missed opportunity while competition is lower.
That’s the part worth flagging to any client, friend, or contact you know who’s thinking about buying: the window to get structured, get pre-approved, and understand exactly what they can service isn’t closing overnight, but it is narrowing. The buyers who get ahead of a possible hike, rather than reacting to it after it lands, tend to have far more options.
What this means for your clients
If you’ve got clients or contacts who are:
- First home buyers sitting near their maximum borrowing capacity
- Waiting to “see what happens” with rates before getting pre-approved
- Unsure whether their current servicing position still stacks up
Now is a good time for them to get a clear read on where they stand, before the decision is made for them by the next rate announcement.
We’re currently helping several first home buyers work out exactly what they can borrow before the next rate decision lands.
If you have a client asking the same question, introduce us before they start house hunting and we’ll map out their borrowing options with them.
Book your free consultation now.