A fixed term ending is a date you know a year ahead, not something that happens to you. The borrowers who get hurt are the ones who do nothing and revert to the lender’s standard variable rate. Six months out is when the useful conversation starts.
Current as at September 2026.
If you fixed your home loan in 2025, you fixed it while the cash rate was falling. The RBA cut the cash rate three times that year, from 4.35% to 4.10% in February, to 3.85% in May, and to 3.60% in August, and then held it there through December. Fixed rates were being priced in that environment.
Then 2026 happened. Up 25 basis points in February, again in March, again in May, back to 4.35%. Held in June and August. And as of 1 September three of the four majors were forecasting one more rise before the end of the year.
So there’s a group of borrowers whose fixed terms end over the next year or two, who fixed while the cash rate was at its recent low and will roll onto a variable rate set after three rises. That’s the cliff. It’s real. I just don’t think it’s a crisis, and I think treating it as one leads people to make worse decisions than treating it as a deadline.
Why “crisis” is the wrong frame
A crisis is something that happens to you. A fixed term ending is something you know the date of, usually a year or more in advance. Nobody is surprised by their own fixed rate expiry. They’re only surprised by what they didn’t do in the twelve months before it.
The people who get hurt at the end of a fixed term are, in my experience, the ones who do nothing. Their loan reverts to the lender’s standard variable rate, which in my experience is rarely the rate the same lender offers new customers, and they stay there because the letter came, the repayment went up, and they assumed that was the new normal. It’s the loyalty tax in fast forward. The ACCC measured that gap in its 2020 home loan price inquiry, and we go through the numbers in Loyalty to your bank is a tax on your future.
The people who do fine are the ones who treat the expiry as a date on a calendar and start working back from it.
What should you do before your fixed term ends?
Six months out is when I’d want to be talking. Not because anything has to happen then, but because six months is long enough to do all of the following and still have time to change your mind.
Find out your revert rate. Your lender will tell you. Compare it to what they’re offering new customers on the same product. That gap is the first number.
Get your borrowing capacity re-checked under current policy. This is the one people skip and it’s the one that matters. Lenders assess you at your rate plus a 3 percentage point buffer, which APRA reconfirmed on 28 May 2026. With the cash rate 75 basis points higher than it was this time last year, your assessed capacity may be lower than it was when you fixed. If it is, refinancing to another lender could be harder than you assume, and repricing with your current lender (no new application) becomes the main lever. You want to know which world you’re in before the expiry, not after.
Book a time with a Loan Lounge broker — no cost, no obligation.
Decide about fixing again. This is a real decision and I’m not going to make it for you in a blog post. What I’ll say is that “will rates go up or down” is the wrong question, because nobody knows (the banks that said “no more hikes” earlier this year have since changed their tune). The better question is what repayment this household can absolutely live with for the next two or three years, and whether certainty about that is worth paying for. Some people should fix. Some shouldn’t. It’s a household question more than a market question.
Look at structure while the loan is open anyway. Offset account, split loan, whether the repayments should be weekly. When you’re already reworking the loan, these can usually be changed at the same time, though some lenders charge for a split or a package.
Where is the opportunity?
Three places.
The first is that a fixed expiry is the one moment in a loan’s life where the lender expects you to shop. Retention teams exist for this. The offer you get by ringing and saying “my fixed rate’s ending, what’s your best variable” is often better than the revert rate by a margin that surprises people. The lender would rather keep you at a lower margin than lose you at a higher one.
The second is that you can refinance without break costs. Break costs on a fixed loan can be large. At expiry they’re zero. If there’s a better lender for you, this is the moment to move without paying to get out.
The third is the reset itself. Most people haven’t looked at their loan since they fixed it. Incomes change, properties go up in value, credit cards get cancelled. A loan set up two years ago for a different version of you gets a proper review now, and the review is what makes the next few years cheaper.
What if you cannot afford the new repayment?
Some people are going to come off a fixed rate into a repayment they genuinely can’t afford, and no amount of reframing fixes that. If that’s you, the six month conversation matters even more, because the options (extending the term, restructuring, talking to the lender’s hardship team early) are all better the earlier they’re used. Talk to your lender, or to us, before the expiry. Don’t wait for the letter.
If your fixed term ends in the next twelve months, book a review. Bring your current rate, your expiry date and your latest statement. Call 02 9037 2825 or book a time with one of the brokers.
This is general information only and doesn’t take your circumstances into account. Nothing here is a prediction of interest rates.
Frequently Asked Questions: The Fixed-Rate Cliff Is an Opportunity, Not a Crisis
What happens when my fixed rate ends?
The loan reverts to the lender’s standard variable rate, which in our experience is rarely the rate the same lender offers new customers.
Should I fix again?
That depends on what repayment your household can live with for the next few years, and whether certainty is worth paying for. It is a household question more than a market forecast.
Can I refinance when my fixed term ends?
Yes, and at expiry there are no break costs. That makes it the cheapest moment in a loan’s life to move.
Related reading
- The 5 C’s of Credit, Explained
- Loyalty to Your Bank Is a Tax on Your Future
- Self-Employed Isn’t the Problem, Your Loan Structure Is
- More on self-employed home loans
Book a broker or find a broker near you. Or call the Burwood office on 02 9037 2825.
General information only. This article does not take your objectives, financial situation or needs into account, and is not financial product, tax or legal advice. Lending criteria, fees and rates vary by lender and change without notice. Loan Lounge, Australian Credit Licence 515608.